By prioritising wind farms, Southland could become self-sufficient, or a net exporter of, renewable energy.
That is the conclusion of the draft regional energy strategy 2022-2050 which Beca Ltd prepared the report for the Southland regional development agency Great South and Murihiku Regeneration.
Great South strategic projects general manager Stephen Canny said while the Tiwai smelter’s future was uncertain and energy-intensive industries like green hydrogen production were in development, having a plan was vital.
“We are in the exciting position of having several new major industries eyeing up Southland,’’ he said.
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“Having his strategy means that investors will have confidence investing in the region – we have a plan and a focus on renewable energy.’’
The strategy considered three scenarios and the only one under which current generation was enough to meet the region’s needs – actually, leave a net surplus – was if the NZAS Tiwai smelter closed at the end of 2024 and the Southern Green Hydrogen (SGH) project didn’t go ahead.
Otherwise, substantial investment in renewable energy would be essential.
Even if there was a managed transition of load between the smelter closing and the commissioning of an SGH plant in 2030, current generation would not be enough to meet the region’s needs.
That was because of the extra demand for electricity as a result of the nationwide decarbonisation agenda.
If the smelter remained open until 2050 and the SGH started production in 2030, the shortfall of current generation levels would be even greater.
To increase generation, the strategy prioritised onshore wind farms – identifying more than 100 potential sites – followed by one, or a mix of:
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hydro generation in Otago
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large solar development north of Te Anau, Mossburn, and possibly Fairlight
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off-shore wind farms
The strategy also outlined potential new renewable energy sources including solar, biogas and run-of-river hydro generation.
The report found the SGH project would also potentially support the production of green ammonia as a clean fuel substitute for large boilers and an input for fertiliser manufacturing.
But regardless of the future of the SGH project, the wider issue of production, storage and use of green hydrogen within the region needed to be investigated to support the decarbonisation of heavy transport.
If both the smelter and SGH operated at the same time, offshore wind or a new hydroelectric development should be considered.
Solar power should not be considered a major contributor to grid-scale generation for the south, but embedded solar (close to electricity loads) capacity could provide energy in areas that were hard to serve through the existing networks.
The areas around Makarewa, Awarua, Mataura and Edendale needed infrastructure upgrades to help industry decarbonise.
Network investment would also be needed to support new generation, initially in areas such as Kaiwera Downs, Blackmount, and Kaihiku Range.
Decarbonising the Edendale dairy factory would require a significant amount of renewable energy, both electricity and biomass – “and early planning to accommodate this load is critically important’’ the report cautioned.
Biogas capture technology, capturing emissions from dairy ponds, metropolitan and industrial waste treatment plants, and historic landfill sites, had real potential but needed further investigation.
The rapidly increasing demand for renewable electricity was placing significant pressure on the national grid operator and local power supply networks to be more agile and responsive to new demand.
Both Milford Sound and Rakiura Stewart Island needed to transition from their reliance on diesel by 2030. The island needed a combination of wind and solar generation, paired with energy storage, and Milford needed to upgrade the current hydropower system, also with backup battery or hydrogen storage.
More detailed study into a region-wide EV fast charger network was recommended.
Murihiku regeneration portfolio director Terry Nicolas said working together as a region and using rapidly emerging technology would be critical to making the best use of resources.
The draft strategy was guided by an advisory group of iwi, councils, major local industry and the electricity sector.
Hui in Gore on April 17, Invercargill April 18 and Te Anau April 20 will be held for public discussion.