The Bundesliga is one of European football’s most difficult divisions to win. That is, for every club apart from Bayern Munich.
Last season, Borussia Dortmund’s 22 wins were the most in the German top flight. Ditto their 71 points. Dortmund players were named monthly MVPs for the entirety of the Rückrunde, or second half of the schedule. They claimed four of the 11 spots in EA Sports’ all-star team; the rookie of the year and player of the season came from their squad.
Yet, they didn’t win the title. Bayern did. On goal difference. Their 11th in a row.
Martin Meissner / The Associated Press Borussia Dortmund captian Emre Can (centre) is expected to feature in Der Klassiker despite a knee problem.
That 2-2 draw with Mainz on the final matchday was the dramatic and, for Dortmund, despairingly disappointing result that allowed a bang-average Bayern side to snatch a championship they just barely deserved. That said, Dortmund were also unable to beat their archrivals either home or away, and it’s really the four of six possible points that Bayern took from those clashes that ultimately won them the shield.
In other words, Der Klassiker determined the destination of the title. Given the near inseparability of its combatants through the first quarter of the current campaign, it could well do so again.
It’s a scenario that, historically, is not to Dortmund’s benefit.
Die Schwarzgelben haven’t enjoyed a Klassiker triumph in the Bundesliga since November 2018 — a 3-2 victory almost exactly five years ago, and one of only three defeats of Bayern in nearly a decade. When last they finished atop the standings, in 2011-12, they prevailed in both meetings, repeating their feat of the previous season, when they also won the league.
Klassiker showdowns, apart from entangling the country’s biggest clubs in ferocious contests, are typically high-pressure occasions. And Dortmund, knowing that even a draw could severely dent its aspirations, inevitably feel that pressure more acutely than its opponents.
With just two points between them ahead of today’s confrontation at the Westfalenstadion (12:30 p.m., DAZN), the hosts, once again, find themselves faced with a situation in which a win will take them above Bayern in the table and a loss will leave them five points behind. Which would effectively conclude their contention.
However — and not for the first time — Dortmund can approach kickoff quite reasonably expecting to come away winners.
For one thing, they could hardly have made a better start across competitions.
Unbeaten through nine rounds in the Bundesliga, they’re also second in Champions League Group F, their opening day defeat at Paris Saint-Germain representing their sole loss of the calendar to date. They recently beat Newcastle at St. James’ Park and on Tuesday edged 1899 Hoffenheim in the DfB-Pokal. Bayern, the same day, went out of the cup after conceding a 96th-minute winner at third-tier Saarbrücken. Die Roten, however, are similarly undefeated going into matchday 10.
They’re also a bit short-handed ahead of this Klassiker. Key midfielder Joshua Kimmich is set to miss out through suspension, and defender Matthijs de Ligt sustained a knee injury against Hoffenheim. Fellow centre-back Dayot Upamecano, also injured, won’t be anywhere close to 100 per cent if he plays from the start and Leon Goretzka will be nursing a broken hand if he’s named in the lineup, as expected.
Dortmund, meanwhile, have an almost clean bill of health, with captain Emre Can likely to take the pitch despite a niggling knee problem. Should he suddenly be ruled out, manager Edin Terzić has a capable replacement in ex-Bayern midfielder Marcel Sabitzer, who scored against Eintracht Frankfurt the last time out.
Terzić will see an advantage in the centre of the park, today, and it’s there he’ll look to dominate his guests.
Can, who averages more than two tackles per game while passing the ball at nearly 87 per cent, is, at 6-1 and 190 pounds, an imposing presence in the middle third, though Felix Nmecha, at 6-3, towers over even him. Terzić could also make a statement by starting all three midfielders, exhibiting a literal show of strength opposite the visitors’ undermanned XI.
Still, Bayern boss Thomas Tuchel has two things going for him that Terzić will never possess.
The first is Harry Kane, who’s on a record-setting goal-scoring pace with 12 Bundesliga tallies in nine appearances. He notched a second-half hat trick the last time out against Darmstadt, which included a Beckham-esque lash from behind the halfway line.
Secondly, Tuchel has the upper hand in that most intangible of qualities: his team’s belief that they’ll win, even if they play poorly. Taking 28 of a possible 30 points from the last 10 Klassikers will tend to instil a sense of invincibility — or, in Dortmund’s case, of impossibility.
Even when all other signs should point to a Dortmund Klassiker win, experience has shown them that Bayern will take up the signs and beat them over the head with them.
How hard is it to win the Bundesliga? It depends who you ask.
X @JerradPeters
