Israel Adesanya has been tipped to lose his next UFC middleweight title defence by a knockout defeat.
The radical prediction comes from former dual-division UFC champion Henry Cejudo, who believes Adesanya’s Brazilian nemesis Alex Pereira has superior striking power for a fight likely to be decided on the feet rather than the ground.
Adesanya defends his title at UFC 281 in New York on November 13 (NZT). It’s a tricky fight for the Kiwi-Nigerian with Pereira having twice beaten Adesanya in kickboxing – once by unanimous points in 2016 and then via a left hook knockout a year later.
Pereira is a former middleweight and light-heavyweight kickboxing champion at the Glory organisation who has transferred his skills to the MMA scene.
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He has a 6-1 record in the cage and is on a three-fight unbeaten run in the UFC that includes two fight of the night performances.
Cejudo, a former Olympic wrestling champion who was the UFC’s bantamweight and flyweight champion in a 16-2 career through to 2020, feels Pereira has a more rounded game than Adesanyan and that could be telling at Madison Square Garden.
“I think Alex is gonna get it,” Cejudo said on his YouTube channel.
“This is why it’s so important that as a mixed martial artist that you become well-rounded. That you’re not just a striker with good defence. Because what happens when you get that other good striker that has better striking than you then you can’t take him down? Cause that’s kinda where we’re at now with Pereira and Adesanya.
“As good as Israel is, Alexander just still has better striking. He knocked him out the last time they fought, he beat him the first time. If this fight goes on its feet, I just gotta go with Pereira.
“I got Pereira by knockout. I think he’s got more diversity and things of that nature. Stop me when I lie.”
But American Jared Cannonier, the last man to lose to Adesanya, believes the Kiwi can still win against Pereira, backing his superior MMA experience.
Adesanya is unbeaten in the UFC’s middleweight division with his only loss coming when he stepped up to light-heavyweight and suffered a points defeat to Jan Blachowicz in March 2021. Adesanya has a MMA record of 23-1 with 15 wins coming via KO.
“It definitely favours Izzy more,” Cannonier told Helen Yee of Adesanya’s comparative time in the cage.
“He’s been here longer. He’s had all these five-round championship fights with the best in our sport, so it’s definitely different. He definitely has the experience in that regard.”
Cannonier, who went the distance against Adesanya to lose via unanimous points in Las Vegas in July, believes the Kiwi has also made subtle differences to his attacking game since exiting kickboxing.
“He’s altered his kickboxing style more for MMA,” Cannonier said.
“Alex still has sort of a kickboxing base, his stance. Not to say that it’s a detriment to him, but it can be exploited as far as MMA goes.
“I think the advantage lies with Israel in that regard.”