If Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has even a drop of integrity pumping through his veins, he will lead the Liberals into the next election and accept the almost-certain defeat that awaits him and his party.
He is the leader. It’s his government, the one he personally led and controlled for nearly the past 10 years. It’s time for him, and the Liberal caucus that supported him all these years, to face the music and let Canadians decide the future of their country.
That’s what should happen — likely by the end of the month — if the prime minister allows it.
SEAN KILPATRICK / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Liberal MP Ben Carr is introduced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the House of Commons in September 2023. Carr is the first Manitoba Liberal MP to publicly call for Trudeau to step down as his party’s leader. 
At least two opposition parties, the Conservatives and the New Democrats, have said they plan on introducing non-confidence motions in the House of Commons after Parliament resumes sitting on Jan. 27. With the NDP saying publicly it will no longer support the minority Liberals, a non-confidence motion would almost certainly pass and trigger a general election.
It’s unlikely the Liberals would have time to pick a new leader before then, even if Trudeau stepped down today. That means an election with Trudeau leading his party, under that scenario, is the most likely outcome.
Of course, Trudeau has another option. He could prorogue Parliament, which would shut down all House business, resign as leader and allow the Liberals to choose a new one. A new prime minister could then return to the House of Commons with a throne speech.
The problem with that scenario is the Liberals will lose the next election anyway, no matter who the leader is. If the Liberals return to Parliament with a new prime minister, they would still lose the confidence of the House, and an election would still be triggered, but a little later in the year.
What would be the point? It would be nothing more than a desperate and hopeless attempt to cling to power. It would only serve the immediate political interests of the Liberal party in its attempt to retain power.
The Liberals are so low in public opinion polls — and have been for well over a year — that re-election is virtually impossible. The Liberals are now 23 percentage points behind the Conservatives, who are polling at about 44 per cent.
That would likely translate into around 232 seats for the Conservatives, 45 for the Bloc Québécois and only 39 for the Liberals, 338Canada.com states. The website tracks polls across the country and calculates a weighted average from all of them.
There’s basically no chance the Liberals could eke out even a minority government. That would not change with a new leader. Time has run out on the Liberal party, whether Justin Trudeau is at the helm or not.
The time-for-a-change dynamic is too strong to reverse, even with a new leader.
Besides, who would that new leader likely be? It would almost certainly be someone within the Liberal caucus, such as former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned from cabinet last month in a shocking move that knocked the Liberals even further down in the polls.
Like most caucus and cabinet members, Freeland has — up until recently — supported Trudeau and his political agenda. It’s the political agenda, with all its flaws — from the SNC-Lavalin and WE Charity scandals to perpetual deficits and crippling debt — that Canadians are fed up with.
Anyone, including Freeland, who supported that cannot detach themselves from their record. They would lose, and lose badly, just as Trudeau would if he leads his party into the next election.
Some Liberal MPs have called for Trudeau’s resignation, including Winnipeg South Centre’s Ben Carr. Presumably, they prefer the prorogation option to give time for the party to elect a new leader. That would be a mistake.
Carr and other disaffected MPs imply it’s not the Liberal government that has fallen out of favour with Canadians, only the prime minister.
“What I have heard consistently from the people I represent, is that they are not feeling alienated by progressive values and policies, but rather by our leadership,” Carr wrote Friday in a letter to his constituents.
That’s doubtful. Canadians want a change in government, that’s crystal clear. It doesn’t matter who the Liberal leader is.
That means Trudeau should take his record to voters and let Canadians decide their future.
Anything else would simply prolong the inevitable and would not serve the public good.
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
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